I went over my managerial accounting homework yesterday and discovered something interesting.  The problem was a standard expected value problem in which given 3 choices with multiple possibilities, we were to decide which choice was optimal.

After calculations there were 3 options: choice A had an EV (expected value) of 20k, choice B’s EV was -4k and choice C’s EV was 14k. 

What shocked me was that although the answer A was correct, the solution still recommended option C because it had the lowest coefficient of variation (the lowest risk per dollar invested). 

I thought about this for a minute.  Why do we care about risk? Isn’t EV just EV, period?  Why would I choose anything with lower EV? 

I thought about my past involvements with risk/reward scenarios such as poker or fantasy football and came to the conclusion that humans, (especially myself), are inherently bad at understanding risk.  I think this is because of the limited amount of time we are given.  Risk is a negative factor because we are given a set amount of time and we literally don’t have enough time to see the risks play out.  After all, we only have 16 games of fantasy football before a champion is determined that season.

2013 has been a tough year for me productivity wise.  After accomplishing close to all my 2012 goals, I ratcheted all my goals for 2013 without considering environmental changes.  Needless to say Sebastian's latest posts have come at a good time.

The problem is I mentally associated my previous productivity pattern with the norm, and although I can allow myself to ratchet back down, (for instance allow myself to watch 4 hours of television a day), I can't help feeling that this is disappointing.  

My weeks consist of a few highly focused, productive days, followed by a few days where I just sit on the couch watching The Walking Dead.   This suggests to me that my problem isn't a result of bad ratcheting, although that may be a factor, namely, setting my goal to 4 hours of tv a day and then slowly decreasing that amount to 3 hours and so on, won't fix this.  I think there is a structural fix that needs to be done with emphasis on environment.  I also think that if I squeeze out all my will power, and create a string of successful days, that the solution will stay permanent (yes, i also believe that will power is a limited resource).  

So for now, I will change 3 things:

1.  leave the house.  Aside from eating, sleeping and other general needs, I will be spending the rest of my time outside the apartment.

If you haven’t been following basketball this season, you still might hear about how the Lakers have struggled.  Laker management’s loss of composure reached its peak when they fired their head coach weeks ago.This is a recurring theme not only in sports, but in decision making as a whole.

As long as the team is winning, bad sportsmanship is tolerated, selfish shots are acceptable, and lack of dedication is overlooked; all sins are forgiven.  Once the team hits a loosing streak however, fingers get pointed and owners go apeshit.Most of us think like this too.  As long as our grades are decent, its no sweat, I’ll worry about it later.  Then we get our test back to see that one F, and we freak out.  We start pulling all nighters, we start bugging the TAs, taking Aderol, and scheming up ways to cheat.It is much better to do the opposite instead.  When times are going well, we should be constantly reevaluating and looking for ways to improve our performance.  When times are bad, we should take a step back, look at the bigger picture, and resist the urge to make drastic moves that could cost us in the near future.

My friend and I want to start a video production company.  He is a photography/film grad, who is very excellent at what he does and is already making a decent living freelancing.  I want to help him generate more clients and ultimately,  get contracted to film commercials for businesses, but the problem with the film field, is that I have no idea where to begin.  I can't just gather a list of leads and make cold calls, and i can't just advertise on a magazine.  Anybody have any advise on how I can start finding people to pitch to or to start creating demand for our service?

As a college student, I find that my list of productive things to do generally involves reading.  I'm studying for classes, then I'm reading SETT blogs, then I read "On Writing Well"...the list goes on. I'm spending a lot of my time consuming information (albeit valuable information), and this leads to feeling unaccomplished. 

I know that the first step to improvement is to gather information (reading).  How can I do something correctly if I don't know whether or not I am?

But, I also remember reading in Four Hour Workweek - Tim Ferris suggests not reading more than one non-fiction book at a time. 

So how do i switch gears and do more when I don't know what to do?