Strategy Lecture 1. Beijing, China. Sunday, 11th March. At Shuangjing Station on Line 10. Cost is free, though a small donation to charity would be appreciated. The talk will be at 4PM, if you don't know the Shuangjing area well you can meet near Shuangjing Station at 3:30PM and I'll have someone swing by to get you. Come, enjoy, and invite your friends.
So, when someone is lying, how do you know it?
If a captain says to one of his infantry, "We're all going to get out of here alive" -- and then one of his men dies, was he telling the truth?
I actually studied what truth is, and broke it down into two component parts that can be ranked from 1-100. In my book, anything below 60/100 on either component is dishonest.
We'll also cover some ways to pick up when someone is saying something that might be untrue, how to notice when someone is trying to "convince themself" of something they don't really believe (which is a sign they'll likely change their mind later), and some other tactical points.
It should be a hell of a time. I look forward to seeing you there.
Theme nitpick: you should set posts on the homepage to 6 instead of 5 to fill in that last spot in the grid.
August 11th, 2011. Chiba, Japan.
A mix of confusion and awe as I step off the platform.
I must have made a mistake. But maybe a good mistake.
Birds caw and cicadas click gently, filling the warm afternoon air with sounds of nature. The train platform is open to the air and on the other side of the tracks is a high fence. Beyond it, a bicycle and walking path leading to a park.
Children are running around and playing in the park, but surprisingly quietly. Very Japanese.
As absurd as it sounds when we stop to think about it, our steady state seems to be one of assuming that we are very close to omniscient. - Kathryn Schulz
Several years ago I happened on Kathryn Schulz's delightful TED talk about being, well... wrong. I was immediately struck by the importance of her ideas for anyone who cared deeply about the truth. (For those of you who, like me, love books more than videos, I can also recommend the book she is discussing in the TED talk, pictured above.)