Strategy Lecture 1. Beijing, China. Sunday, 11th March. At Shuangjing Station on Line 10. Cost is free, though a small donation to charity would be appreciated. The talk will be at 4PM, if you don't know the Shuangjing area well you can meet near Shuangjing Station at 3:30PM and I'll have someone swing by to get you. Come, enjoy, and invite your friends.
So, when someone is lying, how do you know it?
If a captain says to one of his infantry, "We're all going to get out of here alive" -- and then one of his men dies, was he telling the truth?
I actually studied what truth is, and broke it down into two component parts that can be ranked from 1-100. In my book, anything below 60/100 on either component is dishonest.
We'll also cover some ways to pick up when someone is saying something that might be untrue, how to notice when someone is trying to "convince themself" of something they don't really believe (which is a sign they'll likely change their mind later), and some other tactical points.
It should be a hell of a time. I look forward to seeing you there.
Theme nitpick: you should set posts on the homepage to 6 instead of 5 to fill in that last spot in the grid.
Question from a reader -
Hi Sebastian, a question. I'd like to know how you came to be so... gracious. I've noticed that not only do you preach for others to spread gratitude, but you really do go over-the-top with it. It's a bit unbelieveable at times. But I have a good friend who is always very glad to see me (and everyone else). We aren't close anymore, but I always feel we are. I get the feeling you're similarly genuine. How did that come to be? Have you always been that way? I've been trying to be more thankful, but I don't want it to come off as meaningless as a forced plastic smile.
Well, first, that email totally made my day. Thank you.
Before I answer, I've got to pose a hypothetical question to you. Trust me, it's relevant:
Do you think it's more virtuous to do $5,000 worth of good for someone and get $0 in return, or to do $10,000 worth of good for someone and get $2,000 in return?
As absurd as it sounds when we stop to think about it, our steady state seems to be one of assuming that we are very close to omniscient. - Kathryn Schulz
Several years ago I happened on Kathryn Schulz's delightful TED talk about being, well... wrong. I was immediately struck by the importance of her ideas for anyone who cared deeply about the truth. (For those of you who, like me, love books more than videos, I can also recommend the book she is discussing in the TED talk, pictured above.)