SEBASTIAN MARSHALL

Strategy Philosophy Self-Discipline Science Victory

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Defecting by Accident - A Flaw Common to Analytical People

Related to: Rationalists Should Win, Why Our Kind Can't Cooperate, Can Humanism Match Religion's Output?, Humans Are Not Automatically Strategic, Paul Graham's "Why Nerds Are Unpopular"

The "Prisoner's Dilemma" refers to a game theory problem developed in the 1950's. Two prisoners are taken and interrogated separately. If either of them confesses and betrays the other person - "defecting" - they'll receive a reduced sentence, and their partner will get a greater sentence. However, if both defect, then they'll both receive higher sentences than if neither of them confessed.

This brings the prisoner to a strange problem. The best solution individually is to defect. But if both take the individually best solution, then they'll be worst off overall. This has wide ranging implications for international relations, negotiation, politics, and many other fields.

Members of LessWrong are incredibly smart people who tend to like game theory, and debate and explore and try to understand problems like this. But, does knowing game theory actually make you more effective in real life?

I think the answer is yes, with a caveat - you need the basic social skills to implement your game theory solution. The worst-case scenario in an interrogation would be to "defect by accident" - meaning that you'd just blurt out something stupidly because you didn't think it through before speaking. This might result in you and your partner both receiving higher sentences... a very bad situation. Game theory doesn't take over until basic skill conditions are met, so that you could actually execute any plan you come up with.

When You Can't Think Any More -- Sleep!

Big productivity boost if you're setting your own schedule or you're often being the night owl --

Once you start to feel your mind wind down and the fog set in, sleep ASAP!

It sounds simple, but the execution is life-changing. I used to waste about the last two hours of the day in a daze on many days where I wasn't totally spent at the end of the day. Now I've got it down to usually recognizing between 40 and 90 minutes that my mind isn't going to clear, and crashing out.

There's no sense trying to push through it if legitimate exhaustion is there... the quality of thinking will be low. If you must stay up (deadline, etc) grab a cold shower or go running or do pushups. But if you don't have to -- grab some sleep. The you-of-tomorrow will be grateful you did.

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