SEBASTIAN MARSHALL

Strategy Philosophy Self-Discipline Science Victory

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Defecting by Accident - A Flaw Common to Analytical People

Related to: Rationalists Should Win, Why Our Kind Can't Cooperate, Can Humanism Match Religion's Output?, Humans Are Not Automatically Strategic, Paul Graham's "Why Nerds Are Unpopular"

The "Prisoner's Dilemma" refers to a game theory problem developed in the 1950's. Two prisoners are taken and interrogated separately. If either of them confesses and betrays the other person - "defecting" - they'll receive a reduced sentence, and their partner will get a greater sentence. However, if both defect, then they'll both receive higher sentences than if neither of them confessed.

This brings the prisoner to a strange problem. The best solution individually is to defect. But if both take the individually best solution, then they'll be worst off overall. This has wide ranging implications for international relations, negotiation, politics, and many other fields.

Members of LessWrong are incredibly smart people who tend to like game theory, and debate and explore and try to understand problems like this. But, does knowing game theory actually make you more effective in real life?

I think the answer is yes, with a caveat - you need the basic social skills to implement your game theory solution. The worst-case scenario in an interrogation would be to "defect by accident" - meaning that you'd just blurt out something stupidly because you didn't think it through before speaking. This might result in you and your partner both receiving higher sentences... a very bad situation. Game theory doesn't take over until basic skill conditions are met, so that you could actually execute any plan you come up with.

Observations On Being Off-Track (Week Two Review)

What a damn strange week. It was totally off-track by my metrics, through a mix of stupid stuff coming up (people late, canceled appointments, need to do runaround stuff like renew visas), good opportunities coming my way that I grabbed that weren't on the core metrics, and after things started to slip, then poor pre-planning and poor tracking making it worse.

Let's review this week in-depth, it might be interesting for you. Here's a breakdown of what happened by day --

Day Eight: Busy, a couple big wins, but not on-track with my metrics.

Day Nine: Day started very strong, but then I had to do a lot of running around -- renewing my business visa, foreign resident registration at the police station, etc. Once I got into the "errand running" part of the day between visas, etc, the day went off-track.

Day Ten: Also hosed -- I had a few client calls at weird hours, so I had broken sleep through the night (with calls mixed in), then first thing in the morning I had to go to the Public Security Bureau for the new interview for my F-Visa. ("Interview" sounds stronger than it is. I stood in line for 40 minutes or so, smiled, said hello, they took my picture, I signed the form, and left.) Then had lunch about 40 minutes later, though my host for lunch was an hour late… and just like that, the top half of the day was gone, and already out in space. Did a long walk back home (from Guomao to Shuangjing), then a client canceled a call (family emergency on his end), and the power went out at one of my properties because the guys renting burned through a lot more power than normal.

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