Everyone is going crazy for social stuff online. I think it's really good stuff, and there's lots of room to grow in it, and there'll be more successes and more adoption of current stuff.
However, I think the real winners are building something entirely differently right now. They're building for whatever gets hot after social.
Normally if you read an article like this, they'd make some predictions, most of which would turn out to be wrong. I won't do that. Instead, I'll point you to one of the more interesting industries to look at for this sort of thing - mobile phones.
Phones were interesting for me because I was traveling a lot, and I got to see the sort of phones that were popular in Japan when the Motorola Razr was the hottest phone in the United States.
The Japanese phones were three times larger and much clunkier, but had a lot of features. The Razr was stripped down - it did calls, texts, and that's pretty much it. And it had bad battery life.
If I'd paid more attention, I probably could have predicted the rise of larger, more-featured phones like the iPhone in the USA. That's the thing about hindsight - it's obvious afterwards.
So, right now smartphones are in, and the main improvements are happening in apps, web-browsing, and general "look and feel" and experience type stuff. I wonder what comes next?
See, I'm fighting off the desire to give predictions (most of which will turn out to be wrong), but customers always want longer battery life. Also, there's been a huge surge in apps than sync phone, web, and PC like Evernote and Dropbox. However, Evernote and Dropbox require a bit of technical savvy to get going. Not much, but enough that it's too much for a lot of people. In-built sync'ing might offer a lot of value, so maybe that's built into the next generation of phones.
It's actually not all that hard to start paying attention and trying to make predictions. Observe what's getting used a lot already, or what people want to do but the technical isn't quite there yet. Streaming video is obvious in retrospect - yes, of course people would want streaming video. As soon as broadband internet started getting adopted widespread, that was the time to start building streaming video.
If you guess wrong about the next craze after the current craze, you might well wind up making a useful niche product that caters to a small market segment, or being able to sell or license your technology/patents/whatever as part of the whole to a larger company.
But I think these are questions you've got to stop and ask yourself every month or two if you're in a growing, unstable industry. What's the next hot thing after the current one? When consumers get bored of reading about social and the press start looking for a new angle, what will it be?
If you're building that now, you become the go-to example in all the media stories, you grab a lot of early market share, and you start out with a year or two of advantage in front of competitors.
It's a fun exercise, too. Play with other people's phones, or go through their web browsing history and see what they're using. Look at science and technology magazines and see what's getting invented. See what prices are falling on, and what things with falling prices have compliments that are going to get more popular. Travel a little bit, and see how things are done in other countries, and if they'll be adopted in yours.
It's a fun game. You only have to do it in your own industry, but it's fun to play around with it and make predictions in other industries too.
Mike Radivis just asked asked some good questions on "Chase Meaning, Not Happiness" -
How do you measure meaning if not in terms of happiness? Aren't things that create more happiness for a longer time for a larger number of individuals better than those things who lack those qualities but are proclaimed to be personal achievements anyway? Does the scope of happiness make happiness meaningful to you or not? What are achievements good for if they aren't good at facilitating happiness? Imagine you wouldn't experience any pleasant or unpleasant emotions and would have to decide rationally what to pursue (assuming that is possible at all). Then what you want to do with your life? (Another way to formulate this question maybe would be to ask what's your grand strategy in that situation.)
I'm quite interested in your answers. I like that your blog posts are so outspoken. It's just that the message of this post is hard for me to grasp, as I'm pretty much utilitarian in my thinking.
Good questions. I'll go through it line by line.
How do you measure meaning if not in terms of happiness?
I really enjoy using Evernote as my digital cookbook. I have a cookbook, in fact I have many cookbooks and they're all collecting dust - except this and this, the only two anyone would really need - since I began clipping recipes to Evernote. I've seen a lot of people sing the praises of scanning paper but I've found it's always been easier to just snap a picture.Last week I was visiting some family and a copy of Woman's Day was on the table. I flipped through and found this Spiced Chicken and Chickpea Stew Recipe. Well, I could have torn the page out, folded it enough to fit in my pocket, brought it home, lost it will all the other things in my pocket and eventually found it. Instead, I snapped this shot and have the recipe saved. Here's a few other tips for using Evernote this way.
If you want my note with this recipe, it's here.