Finally got around to Taleb's "Black Swan" on audio. Hadn't gone through it before because the core concept seems pretty obvious and straightforward, but it's actually packed with interesting stuff.
"Retroactive determinism," for instance, was a phrase just tossed out once and thrown away -- but it's a useful addition to a vocabulary.
It describes how things seem obvious in retrospect. You meet someone successful, so you credit their long work hours, or alternatively their laziness which makes them desire to find more efficient ways, their healthy diet, or their laid-back ways without focus on things like that.
Retroactive determinism says that people say things were automatic and obvious afterwards, but oftentimes what they say caused the event -- long hours, or laziness/efficiency combo -- might not be it at all, and probably isn't.
"Black Swan" is good. Recommended.