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Crossing the Chinese/Mongolian Border by Land

What a fascinating trip. I just did this route -

Beijing -> Erlianhaote -> Zamyn Uud -> Ulan Bator

Why do I choose such circuitous, crazy routes? Well, lots of reasons.

I want to understand as much as I can about the world, and taking out of the way routes - especially through important border towns - teaches a lot.

Often, you can manage a route like this in a way that's much less expensive than direct flights. Yes, time is money, but money is also money.

Market and trading 1/3/2014

On Ideas in the Making

around novemeber I said I would write weekly about the markets, unfortunately, I didnt know about certain sec violations and rules and got a free riding violation because the broker I was using was not margin enabld for my accounts sized. What this meant was, I couldnt trade anywhere near as liquid as I wanted, so I ended up just buying a stock and holding unto it for a month (ARCW). But now that 2014 has rolled in, I have a new broker, a new account, more money in the account, and am ready to go violation free and margin enabled.

Thoughts on 2014 market:

Commodities are making a comeback! Steel is up, and I expect aluminum, Coal and other metals to follow through. I am still bearish on gold though, There are just to many issues with switzerland and China revolving around gold thats hard to say what will happen. Also gold is coming off a multi-year bubble, and I dont think 8 months is anywhere near good enough of a correction. Gold miners might have a little pop, since they are down a lot, but gold spot price... I am not too sure about.

Secondly I believe China and Russia will be good markets, and I am looking into Indonesia, Vietnam and other smaller emerging markets. China has a booming middle class, a still insanely roaring economy, and much more financially aware people entering the market place daily. This coupled with that fact the market is undervalued on a P/E to book value basis, and the credit cycle in China, as well as potentially more foreign invesment coming from the recovering United States and Japan, China has a huge upside to downside ratio.

Buying immense fear and bases has proven over and over again to be a good idea. I learned this via Jesse Stinne's books and tweets (amazing stuff defintely worth checking out). Greece for example is up substatially, while the wall of worry couldnt have been any bigger. The truth is the worry was much bigger than the reality, and the greece GDP was quite resileient, at least relative to the greek market. In other words, the market was vastly out of line with fundamentals, and was based on fear, the disconnect was just too glaring.

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