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The "I wonder what the next business craze is" game

Everyone is going crazy for social stuff online. I think it's really good stuff, and there's lots of room to grow in it, and there'll be more successes and more adoption of current stuff.

However, I think the real winners are building something entirely differently right now. They're building for whatever gets hot after social.

Normally if you read an article like this, they'd make some predictions, most of which would turn out to be wrong. I won't do that. Instead, I'll point you to one of the more interesting industries to look at for this sort of thing - mobile phones.

Phones were interesting for me because I was traveling a lot, and I got to see the sort of phones that were popular in Japan when the Motorola Razr was the hottest phone in the United States.

The Japanese phones were three times larger and much clunkier, but had a lot of features. The Razr was stripped down - it did calls, texts, and that's pretty much it. And it had bad battery life.

Is Exponential Growth Possible?

On Recursive Self-Improvement

This site is for people who want to grow exponentially; to improve their ability to improve themselves. Is this even possible?

Here's an exponential curve:

Making one positive change makes it easier to make more positive changes in future. So at first glance, it looks as though your rate of growth should keep growing, and that exponential improvements are possible.

But clearly you can't grow exponentially forever. We don't encounter people who've reached a "productivity singularity" where they can complete their daily tasks in five minutes, and spend the rest of their time reading time-management books (while jogging on a treadmill) to become even more efficient.

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