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Sebastian

Factions, Negotiation, and Diplomacy

The year is 204 B.C., and Publius Cornelius Scipio stands, blade and standard in hand, over now-conquered Utica. The numerically superior forces of Hasdrubal and Syphax almost completely annihilated in a nighttime assault by the Romans, and the Carthaginian field forces were entirely out of commission in Northern Africa.

The Carthaginian Empire is the verge of ruin, with Scipio's forces clear to take the capital -

Carthage and Rome Before the Second Punic War

And lo! Envoys appear.

Not just any envoys, but 30 Members of Carthage's Council of Elders, the highest and most respected spokesmen for the state.

They prostrate themselves before Scipio, and beg his forgiveness. They blame the entire war on the ambition of Hannibal, and forsake him. They desire peace...

...and Scipio says yes, giving them entirely reasonable terms considering the gravity of the situation.

Then, as with everything in life, times change. Scipio's supplies from Rome are blown off course, and the transport ships run aground near Carthage.

The Carthaginian war-faction now overrides the peace faction, and they seize the supplies. Simultaneous with Hannibal's massive force of 24,000 men being recalled from the Italian Peninsula, the tables have turned - and the war is back on.

It's worth noting that there's always multiple factions in any side. There might even be multiple opinions - factions, in a way - inside a single person.

Negotiators will always claim to speak for the whole of their camp when it suits them. And yet...

Bear this in mind. Even when one faction of an opposition is friendly to you, or wants peace, there is almost always a war faction. Delays in calendar time let events change and initiative shift. You cannot rely too closely on one person speaking passionately to you if they don't have the undivided and unopposed respect of everyone significant in their camp... and consistency in their opinions, and integrity in abiding their decisions.

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Mony Chhim
  • Mony Chhim
  • 2 years ago
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Excellent post, both interesting and thought-provoking.

We need more actionable history, Sebastian! :)

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The Greatest Losses -- After The Issue Is Already Settled

At the same time, this is an issue both terrible and important to think about.

B.H. Liddel Hart, in "Scipio Africanus," notes that the majority of causalities, fatalities, and damage don't occur during conflict, but afterwards -- to the losing side.

From Hannibal's defeat at The Battle of Zama -

"...the loss of the Carthaginians and their allies [was] twenty thousand slain and almost as many captured. On the other side, [the estimates range from "1500 Romans" to "2000 of the victors."] The discrepancy is explained by the word "Romans," for Livy's total clearly includes the allied troops. It is a common idea among historians that these figures are an underestimate, and that in ancient battles the tallies given always minimise the losses of the victor. Ardant du Picq, a profound and experienced thinker, has shown the fallacy of these cloistered historians. Even in battle to-day the defeated side suffers its heaviest loss after the issue is decided, in what is practically the massacre of unresisting or disorganised men. How much more must this disproportion have occured when bullets, still less machine-guns, did not exist to take their initial toll of the victors. So long as formations remained unbroken the loss of life was relatively small, but when they were isolated or dissolved the massacre began."

Could there more mercy, more clemency? Well, we would hope so, but then there's the faction/negotiation/diplomacy problem... when the defeated surrender, they only represent one faction who is at possibly the lowest point, most conducive to surrender. Later on, once cleaned-up and re-armed, the war-hawking faction will return, and if the opponent's forces are not reduced in defeat, they will likely be re-deployed and battle will began anew.

Princess Sophonisba of Carthage, and the Ruin of King Syphax

The people of modern-day Algeria have always had been fierce warriors.

Two thousand and twenty five years ago, in 213 B.C., the land was Numidia, famed for its cavalry. Numidia was divided at this point between the Masaesyli tribe, who ruled Western Numidia, and the Massyllii tribe, who ruled Eastern Numidia.

King Syphax ruled Western Numidia, and following the death of his rival King Gala of East Numidia, Syphax made huge gains. He was consolidating, and set to become ruler of all Numidia.

Meanwhile, King Gala was succeeded by his son Massinissa, who became ruler of the now-weak East Numidians.

Numidia at the time was in friendly neutrality with Carthage, the nearby power, but entertained Roman offers for peace and diplomacy as well.

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